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Economic Indices July 2011
For Immediate Release
August 5, 2011
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index in July
Unchanged;
Italy Declines While Spain Increases
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index remains at
95 for July 2011, the same as in May and June. The Index has moved sideways or
trended slightly lower over the past 6 or 7 months, suggesting economic sluggishness
in the second half of 2011. The Economic Index for Spain increased from 80 in
June to 82 in July, while the Index for Italy declined from 88 in June to 86 in
July. The Decision Analyst Economic Indices are leading indicators for their respective
countries (tending to foreshadow overall economic activity by 6 to 12 months in
each respective country). Here is the U.S. Economic Index for the past 3 years.
“The 10-year graph of the U.S. Economic Index indicates that the economy
bottomed out in early 2009 and has not yet regained its prerecession levels. The
U.S. economy has been comparatively weak for a whole decade,” said Jerry
W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The Index is predicting a
no-growth to slow-growth economy for the second half of 2011. High unemployment
continues to slow any momentum for a recovery. Many city, county, and state governments
are cutting jobs in order to balance budgets. While small businesses are doing
slightly better, they are not planning to hire new employees.
“The economic recovery is fragile, and rising prices threaten to tip
the U.S. back into recession. If gasoline and energy prices decline during the
second half of 2011, that would be a significant stimulus to the economy.
“There is a high risk of financial meltdowns in 2011, especially in Europe,
and these risks could dampen economic growth in 2011. The European Union remains
less than robust,” said Thomas. “The clouds of financial stress hang
over Europe as Italy, Spain, and Greece struggle to deal with excessive debt and
less-than-stellar economies.”
International Economic Indices
The North American countries are hovering in the mid-to low 90s, with Canada’s
index score of 93 and Mexico’s score of 92. Meanwhile in Europe, Germany
has the strongest Index, with a score of 103, while all the other countries being
reported are in the 80s. The emerging countries in South American and Asia have
strong scores; Brazil has an index of 123 and China has an Index of 125.
The Decision Analyst Economic Indices for the individual countries for the
past 10 years are below.
The Index numbers for Argentina, Australia, Chile, China, Colombia, Germany,
Mexico, Peru, and Spain are a three-month moving average to smooth out month-to-month
fluctuations. The reported Index number averages the current month with the
two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric
model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country
surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the
respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys
each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia,
France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation,
Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and
analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development,
advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization.
For over 3 decades, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and automotive industries.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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