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Press Release Archives | U.S. Census Division
Economic Indices May 2011
For Immediate Release
June 6, 2011
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index Shows
Promise For May 2011
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index ticked up
to 95 in May 2011, a 2-point increase from April. This May increase in the Economic
Index is welcome news, because the Index had declined for 5 straight months
before May. The U.S. Economic Index is a leading indicator (tending to foreshadow
overall economic activity by 6 to 12 months). Here is the U.S. Economic Index
for the past 3 years.
Here is the U.S. Economic Index for the past 10 years.
“The increase of the U.S. Economic Index for May is a bit
of good news in an otherwise dreary economic landscape. The U.S. economy remains
sluggish and vulnerable to a double-dip recession. The Index is predicting a
no-growth to slow-growth economy for the second half of 2011,” said Jerry
W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The economic recovery is
delicate, and rising prices for food and energy have reduced consumer buying
power. If gasoline and energy prices decline during the second half of 2011
that would be a significant stimulus to the economy."
"Unemployment continues to be a terrible drain on the U.S. economy,"
said Thomas. "Many state, county, and city governments are cutting employees
to balance their budgets. Small businesses are doing slightly better, but are
still struggling to get access to credit, so they are not hiring many new employees
just yet.”
The West South Central Division has the highest Economic Index, with a score
of 101. The Mountain Division has the lowest Index, with a score of 87.
The trends for the various census divisions tend to be similar overall, but
regional differences are evident. The West North Central Division increased
from 95 in April to 97 in May and the Pacific Division increased from 89 in
April to 90 in May. The remaining Divisions either stayed the same or declined
from April to May. The division-by-division results for the past 10 years are
presented in the following graphs. Remember, the graphs portray 3-month moving
averages.
Census Division Three-Month Moving Average
The Index numbers for the census divisions are a three-month moving average
to smooth out fluctuations due to smaller sample sizes. The reported Index number
averages the current month with the two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric
model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country
surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the
respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys
each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia,
France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation,
Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and
analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product research,
advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization.
The 33-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients throughout the
world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology,
medical, and automotive industries.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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