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Press Release Archives | U.S. Census Division
Economic Indices February 2011
For Immediate Release
March 8, 2011
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index Remains
Unchanged in February 2011
The Indices by U.S. Census Division
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index registered
95 for February 2011, the same as the previous month. Throughout the past 12
months, the Economic Index has plodded along, fluctuating between 94 and 96
most of the months. The U.S. Economic Index is a leading indicator (tending
to foreshadow overall economic activity by 6 to 12 months) and is forecasting
slow economic growth for the balance of 2011. Here is the U.S. Economic Index
for the past 10 years.
“The Economic Index continues to predict economic expansion
during 2011, although the pace of growth will be marginal. Our data suggest
that the Bureau of Labor Statistics might be under-reporting inflation. If this
is true, some of the reported U.S. economic growth might be overstated. The
U.S. economy continues to operate in a high-risk environment, with commodity
prices soaring, continuing layoffs in the public sector, lingering subprime
problems, and a persistent lack of credit for many small businesses,”
said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst.
The middle of the country has the highest scores, with the West South Central
Division having an Index of 99 and the West North Central Division having an
Index of 98. The East South Central and Pacific Divisions are tied for the lowest
score at 93. (See map below.) The center of the U.S. is benefiting from higher
prices for farm commodities and higher prices for energy.
The trends for the various census divisions tend to be similar overall, but
regional differences are evident. Only 2 of the 9 divisions saw increases from
January to February (the South Atlantic and the East South Central); all other
divisions have seen declines. The division-by-division results for the past
10 years are presented in the following graphs. Remember, the graphs portray
3-month moving averages.
Census Division Three-Month Moving Average
The Index numbers for the census divisions are a three-month moving average
to smooth out fluctuations due to smaller sample sizes. The reported Index number
averages the current month with the two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric
model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country
surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the
respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys
each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia,
France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation,
Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading global marketing research
and analytical consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy
research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision
optimization. The 33-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, Decision Analyst
owns and operates the American Consumer Opinion® Online panel—one
of the largest consumer opinion panels in the world—with more than eight
million members.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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