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Press Release Archives | U.S. Census Division
Economic Indices January 2011
For Immediate Release
February 3, 2011
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index Begins
2011 with a Whimper
The Indices by U.S. Census Division
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index started 2011
with a January number of 95, a decrease of one point from December 2010. Throughout
the past year, the Economic Index has muddled along, fluctuating between 94
and 96 most of the months. The January 2011 Index of 95 is just one point higher
than the January 2010 Index (94). Since the U.S. Economic Index is a leading
indicator (tending to foreshadow overall economic activity by 6 to 12 months),
the Index is forecasting a “sideways” U.S. economy during 2011,
a period of slow and fragile economic growth. The huge U.S. federal deficit
this year will be a stimulus to the U.S. economy, but budget shortfalls at state
and local levels will be a drag on the economy. If corporate spending trends
up, and consumers continue to loosen their wallets, the net effect should be
positive economic growth in 2011, albeit at a slow pace. Here is the U.S. Economic
Index for the past three years.
“The Index and its component measures are predicting a slow-growth
economy in 2011. Unemployment continues to be a major problem (our tracking
data indicates an unemployment rate around 16%, similar to the Bureau of Labor
Statistics’ U-6 measure of unemployment). The housing market continues
to be a major risk factor as many homes are still in the foreclosure process.
With weak tax revenues, state and local governments will be making tough choices
(higher taxes and/or reduced services) in 2011 to balance their budgets. Rising
commodity prices are major risks to the 2011 economy, especially increasing
prices for food and energy,” according to Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO
of Decision Analyst.
The West North Central and the West South Central Divisions have the highest
scores (101 and 101, respectively), while the East South Central Division has
the lowest score at 92. (See map below.) The center of the U.S. is benefiting
from higher prices for farm commodities and higher prices for energy.
The trends for the various Census Divisions tend to be similar overall, but
regional differences are evident. These division-by-division results for the
past 11 years are presented in the following graphs. Remember, the graphs portray
three-month moving averages. (See the individual census division graphs below.)
Census Division Three-Month Moving Average
The Index numbers for the census divisions are a three-month moving average
to smooth out fluctuations due to smaller sample sizes. The reported Index number
averages the current month with the two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric
model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country
surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the
respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys
each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia,
France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation,
Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading global marketing research
and analytical consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy
research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision
optimization. The 33-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, Decision Analyst
owns and operates the American Consumer Opinion® Online panel—one
of the largest consumer opinion panels in the world—with more than eight
million members.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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