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For Immediate Release
October 5, 2010
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166

Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index registered 96 in September, a one-point increase from the previous month. The overall pattern is a gradual uptrend in the Index over the past 18 months. Since the U.S. Economic Index is a leading indicator (tending to foreshadow overall economic activity by six to 12 months), the Index is forecasting a slowly expanding U.S. economy for the balance of 2010 and the first half of 2011. Here is the U.S. Economic Index for the past three years.

“The U.S. economy continues to show a pattern of modest but steady growth,” according to Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “Major corporations are flush with cash and credit at low interest rates, and this will exert positive energy to sustain the recovery. The international economy continues to recover as well, and this will provide uplift for the U.S. economy. Small businesses in the U.S., however, continue to struggle without access to adequate credit. The continued weakness in the housing industry, mortgage problems, and high unemployment limits growth. Budget deficits at all levels of government, and the consequent cutbacks in governmental expenditures and increases in taxes, will also act to slow the economy throughout the next two or three years. If there are no major shocks to the system (such as another financial crisis or credit freeze), the U.S. economy should continue its plodding recovery,” said Thomas. “The threat of a double-dip recession remains, however, simply because economic growth is so feeble. The margin of error is small. It would not take much to move us from the positive to the negative.”

International Index

The table on the next page compares the U.S. Economic Index to Decision Analyst’s Economic Indices in other countries. China, followed by Brazil have both have scores over 130. Europe has four countries with Index scores below 90 (France, Spain, Italy, and the United Kingdom); meanwhile Germany is the only European country with a score above 100. In North America the United States is doing slightly better than Canada. (See table on below.)

 

Census Divisions

New England and Middle Atlantic Divisions appear to be doing better than the rest of the country, while the Mountain Division has the weakest Index of all the U.S. Census Divisions. (See map below.)

 

The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation, Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.

Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.

About Decision Analyst

Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. The 32-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, Decision Analyst owns and operates American Consumer Opinion® Online—one of the largest consumer opinion panels in the world—with more than eight million members.

For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011

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