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Press Release Archives | U.S. Census Division
Economic Indices
For Immediate Release
May 4, 2010
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index Springs
Ahead for April;
U.S. Economic Growth Blooms
Arlington, Texas—After remaining virtually stagnant for the past five
months, the Index is starting to bloom. Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic
Index registered a 98 in April, an increase of three points from a 95 in March.
Since this Index tends to lead the U.S. economy by six to 12 months, it continues
to predict a gradually improving economy during 2010. Below is the Index for
the past three years.
“The April jump in the U.S. Economic Index indicates accelerating
growth in the U.S. economy in coming months. As confidence builds, corporations
will start to make capital investments and begin to consider staffing up to
take advantage of the economic expansion,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO
of Decision Analyst. “Tight bank credit remains a major drag on the economy,
but some banks are beginning to climb out of their foxholes and look around
for loan opportunities. Banks, too, are affected by good economic news, so banks
are likely to become more positive and more receptive to loaning money as the
recovery continues.
“Nevertheless, major structural risks remain: excessive debt, especially
sovereign debt; threats of runaway inflation; high unemployment; the possibility
that the credit markets might freeze up again; and the growing economic bubble
in China,” said Thomas.
The New England division’s Index is much higher than the other census
divisions. The East South Central and South Atlantic divisions are comparatively
weaker than the rest of the country (see regional map below.)
| Three-Year History By Census
Division |
The New England division has been trending upwards over the past year and has
the largest increase from March (an Index of 99) to April (an Index of 104).
At the other end of the spectrum, the East South Central and the West South
Central divisions have been declining or are stagnant; they are the only divisions
that have decreased from March to April (decreasing one Index point each).
Census Division Three-Month Moving Average
The Index numbers for the census divisions are a three-month moving average
to smooth out fluctuations due to smaller sample sizes. The reported Index number
averages the current month with the two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric
model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country
surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the
respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys
each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia,
France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation,
Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading global marketing research
and analytical consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy
research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision
optimization. The 32-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, Decision Analyst
owns and operates the American Consumer Opinion® Online panel—one
of the largest consumer opinion panels in the world—with more than eight
million members.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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