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Economic Indices
For Immediate Release December 4, 2009
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
U.S. Economy Waffling—Decision Analyst’s
November Economic Index Points to Economic Malaise
Arlington, Texas—Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index for November
2009 fell, dropping from 96 in October to 94 in November. Since this Index tends
to foreshadow the U.S. economy by 9 to 12 months, this downturn in the Economic
Index indicates the economy will be very sluggish during the first half of 2010.
The Index predicted the bottoming of the U.S. economy evident in the second
quarter of 2009. Below is the Economic Index for the past three years:
“The positives are consumers are seeing more activity where
they work and prices are remaining relatively stable. The negatives are record-high
unemployment and constrained credit availability at all levels. The U.S. economy
remains fragile, and any severe shock could send the economy into a downward
spiral. The extent and depth of this economic downturn will take years to mend,”
said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The politicians
in Washington are anxious to announce that the recession is over and happy times
are here again, but the truth is it’s going to take many months before
we see strong economic growth (unless the price of oil falls to $30 a barrel),”
said Thomas.
The Pacific, Mountain, East South Central, and South Atlantic divisions continue
to struggle, compared to other sections of the U.S. The New England division
appears to be leading the way out of the recession. (See regional map below.)
| Three-Year History By Census
Division |
The New England and Pacific census divisions are trending upwards, while the
West North Central, and West South Central divisions have seen slight declines
recently or are stagnant. The East North Central division (automotive region)
has made recent improvements (presumably due to the U.S. government’s
“Cash for Clunkers” program), but now appears to be leveling off.
Census Division Three-Month Moving Average
The Index numbers for the census divisions are a three-month moving average
to smooth out fluctuations due to smaller sample sizes. The reported Index number
averages the current month with the two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric
model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country
surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the
respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys
each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia,
France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation,
Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela. Not all International Indices
are made available to the public due to low base sizes.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading global marketing research
and analytical consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy
research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision
optimization. The 31-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, Decision Analyst
owns and operates the American Consumer Opinion® Online panel—one
of the largest consumer opinion panels in the world—with more than seven
million members.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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