Home | Press Room | Press Release Archives | Economic Index

---

For Immediate Release February 4, 2009
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166

Arlington, Texas—After remaining essentially flat during most of 2008, Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index declined two points in January to 85, its lowest reading in the past decade. The Economic Index tends to be a leading indicator, usually foreshadowing changes in gross domestic product by 12 to 18 months.

“The Financial Panic of 2008 (the freezing of credit markets and the distress in the banking sector during the second half of 2008) is taking a heavy toll on the real economy,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst, “as evidenced by the decline of the Economic Index in January to 85. However, the fact that the Economic Index has been depressed for nine to 10 months already, signals a leveling of the U.S. economy in the next six months. That is, it’s likely that we are at, or very near, the bottom of this recession. We continue to forecast a bottom to the U.S. recession by the middle of 2009. Easier credit, lower interest rates, and depressed commodity prices, plus government stimulus spending, should help the economy turn positive before the end of 2009,” according to Thomas. “The recovery is likely to be slow and difficult as state governments’ budgets, commercial mortgages and private-equity and hedge fund investments go sour in coming months.”

“The forecast of a recession trough in 2009 assumes that the credit markets and the banking sector will begin to function normally as the year unfolds,” said Thomas. “Falling prices are making it more difficult to measure what is going on in the economy, and much of the reported government economic data will go through significant revisions in coming months.”

Census Divisions

The middle of the U.S. appears to be weathering the recession better than the rest of the country. The West North Central and the West South Central Divisions are doing better than the West Coast or the East Coast. The Northeastern area and Eastern seaboard appear to be suffering the greatest economic difficulty, as shown below:

International Index

A comparison of the U.S. Economic Index to the Economic Index in other countries provides some interesting perspective. Canada is doing slightly better than the U.S. and China, Brazil, Australia, and India appear to be doing comparatively well. Spain, France, and the U.K. are struggling.

Methodology

The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The survey is typically conducted in the last 10 days of each month. The Index is calculated from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current U.S. economic activity as seen through the eyes of representative consumers. Decision Analyst also conducts concurrent economic surveys in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation, United Kingdom, and Venezuela. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.

About Decision Analyst

Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading marketing research and marketing consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. The firm delivers competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, high technology, medical and pharmaceutical, utilities, and e-commerce industries. Decision Analyst operates American Consumer Opinion® online, one of the world's largest Internet-based consumer-opinion panels, with more than seven million members.

For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011

Visit our Logos & Images page for photographs and logos, if needed.