Home | Press Room | Press Release Archives | October 2003 Economic Index

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For Immediate Release October 31, 2003
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166

Arlington, Texas—The U.S. economy remains on the road to recovery according to the latest data from Decision Analyst, Inc.'s October U.S. Economic Index. The overall Index was unchanged at 110 in October, the highest level reached this year. Confidence in the growth potential of the stock markets continues to rise unabated, reaching a monthly level exceeded only once in the last three years (in March 2002).

"The economy is transitioning from a period of 'bottoming out' to one of expansion, and the rate of growth is likely to accelerate," said Jerry W. Thomas, President and CEO of Decision Analyst, a marketing research and marketing consulting firm. "Most of the key economic indicators -employment trends, prices, business activity and consumer purchase intentions - are holding firm at a higher level than earlier in the year. The one shining star is rising confidence in the stock markets."

The October Economic Index found confidence in the stock and bond markets up 25 percent over one year ago, and fully 37 percent higher than the low reached in January 2003. By comparison, the business activity Index component is up just four percent over October 2002, and consumer purchase intent is actually nine percent lower.

"There's no doubt that the stock markets are outperforming the overall economy by a considerable amount at the present time," Thomas says. "Yet the markets are not rising without cause - recent data (especially recent strong quarterly earnings from many of the big corporations) have convinced investors that recovery is coming; it's just a matter of time before their optimism is reflected in measurable growth."

Methodology

The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The survey is conducted during the last 10 days of each month, and the Index is immediately calculated from nine different economic measurements, using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current U.S. economic activity, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers. Decision Analyst also conducts concurrent economic surveys in Canada, the U.K., Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands, Mexico and Australia. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a stagnant economy, and below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.

About Decision Analyst

Decision Analyst, Inc. is a leading marketing research and marketing consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. The firm delivers competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, high technology, medical and pharmaceutical, utilities, and e-commerce industries. Decision Analyst operates American Consumer Opinion� Online, one of the world's largest Internet consumer opinion panels, with more than 3.5 million participants.

For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1.800.ANALYSIS (262.5974)
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011

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