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Volumetric Forecasting
Conceptor® Volumetric Forecasting
Many new products and services that could be successful are abandoned before
they are ever launched. Some new products are introduced with great fanfare—and
soon become damaging and costly failures. Accurate forecasting of new products
is essential to a company's growth and profitability. Product category experience
includes:
- Consumer packaged goods
- Consumer durables
- Over-the-counter (OTC) medicines
- Ethical pharmaceuticals
- Business-to-business (B2B) products
- Services
Conceptor® Volumetric Forecasting Model
The Conceptor® volumetric forecasting model provides accurate and comprehensive
estimates of year-one sales. Conceptor® incorporates the following variables:
- Client Marketing Inputs. Detailed data about distribution levels, strength of sales organization, packaging variables, pricing, advertising
expenditures and/or advertising gross rating points (GRP's), promotion plans, etc.
- Advertising. The SellingPower™ scores from
CopyTest® advertising effectiveness
research or from PackageTest® for
nonadvertised brands.
- Trial. Scores from our ConceptTest® system are fed into the Conceptor® simulation model
to predict the "trial" curve.
- Repeat-Purchase Rate. The repeat-purchase rate
is calculated based on results from ConceptTest® and variables from Optima®
product tests. In the absence of product-testing data, category averages are
entered.
- Calibration. We calibrate the Conceptor® models for each client company. Historical data from a client's previous new product
introductions (past five years) are sought. Calibration of our models helps ensure the most accurate forecasts possible.
The Conceptor® volumetric forecast is typically presented as year-one retail
depletions in units and dollars. Trial volume is reported separately from repeat
volume for short-cycle products. Conceptor® sales forecasts are generally
accurate within plus or minus 25% for concept testing alone, or plus or minus
15% with the addition of Optima® product testing.
International Forecasts
Volumetric forecasts can be prepared for any country. To ensure accuracy of each country’s forecast and take into account cultural and economic differences, concept tests and product tests must be conducted in each country.
The more realistic the experimental stimuli, the more accurate the results.
That is why we often recommend Logician® Simulated Shopping with 3D animation
for volumetric forecasting projects. We can create 3D shopping environments
that take consumers on a realistic online visit to a retail store, expose then
to advertising and promotional stimuli, and allow them to purchase products
with the click of the mouse. 3D models can be created for lawn mowers, cell
phones, cars, etc., that permit consumers to see a product from many visual
perspectives.
Analytical Consulting
Decision Analyst’s strengths in statistics and mathematics, simulation,
modeling, and optimization provides the analytical horsepower to address complex
business and strategy problems. If you would like more information on research
for new product development and/or volumetric forecasting, please contact Jerry
W. Thomas, President/CEO (jthomas@decisionanalyst.com),
or John Colias, Ph.D., Senior Vice President Advanced Analytics
(jcolias@decisionanalyst.com),
or call 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166.
Additional Resources from Decision Analyst
New Product Research Services
New Product Research Brochures
Sales Forecasting Case Histories
Sales Forecasting White Papers
